Meeting Scotland's 2030 Onshore Wind Targets

In 2022, the Scottish Government published the Onshore Wind Policy Statement 2022 (OWPS), which suggested that by 2030, Scotland should reach a minimum capacity of 20GW of onshore wind.

How are we measuring up against that target?

BVG Associates, an independent renewable energy consultancy focussing on wind, wave, tidal, and energy systems, recently examined different scenarios for how much onshore wind energy can practically be developed in Scotland by 2030 in a recent publication. 

Scenario 1 includes only projects that are already in the planning system and public records. This shows that we won’t reach the 20 GW target, achieving only 15.7 GW by 2030.

Scenario 2 adds projects that developers have reported but haven’t made public yet. Even with these, we still fall short of the target, reaching 19.8 GW by 2030.

Over the course of 2024, the Energy Consents Unit reviewed 20 onshore wind applications, with 15 approved and 5 refused. Since 1 January 2025, there have been 4 determinations, with 3 consents and 1 refusal.

This suggests an average 75% approval rate, making the challenge of reaching that 20GW target all the greater.

Furthermore, on average, it takes three years to gain approval for a wind farm, and 5-7 years from site selection to operation. For the targets to be met, projects should already be progressing through the planning stages and beginning construction now. It is well-documented and a major policy challenge that delays in the planning process - and on bringing forward grid connection - are slowing down progress.

As a company committed to renewable energy development, we are working hard to progress projects through these stages and contribute to Scotland's renewable energy future. We are excited by the contribution we and others can make to transforming our energy future.

That said, we clearly need industry-wide action to address the current planning and grid connection delays if we are to ensure that we can meet net-zero targets on time.